Walter’s ModelWalter JE supports the view that the dividend policy has a bearing on the market price of the share and has presented a model to explain the relevance of dividend policy for valuation of the firm based on the following assumptions:
- All investment proposals of the firm are to be financed through retained earnings only and no external finance is available to the firm.
- The business risk complexion of the firm remains same even after fresh investment decisions are taken. In other words the rate of return on investments i.e. ‘r’ and the cost of capital of the firm i.e., ke , are constant.
- The firm has an infinite life.
This model considers that the investment decisions and the dividend decision of a firm are inter related. A firm should or should not pay dividends depends upon whether it has got the suitable investment opportunities to invest the retained earnings or not.
The dividend policy of a firm depends upon the relationship between r & ke . If r>ke the firm should have zero payout and reinvest the entire profits to earn more than the investors. If, however, r is less than ke then the firm should have the 100% payout ratio. If r=ke, the dividend is irrelevant and the dividend policy is not expected to affect the market value of the share.
Formula to testify this: P= D/Ke + [(r/ke) (E-D)]/Ke
D= Dividend per share paid by the firm
P= Market price of the equity share
R+ Rate of return on investment of the firm
Ke= Cost of equity share cap[ital
E= earnings per share of the firm.
Gordon’s ModelMyron Gordon’ model suggests that the dividend policy is relevant and can affect the value of the firm as well as the share. The assumptions are same as Walter’s Model. Two new assumptions have been made:
- The growth rate of the firm ‘g’ is the product of retention ratio ‘b’ and its rate of return ‘r’, i.e., g=br
- The cost of capital besides being constant is more than the growth rate, i.e., ke >g
Gordon argues that the investors do have a preference for current dividends and there is a diect relationship between the dividend policy and the market value of the share. Investors are basically risk averse and thus they value current dividends more highly than an expected future capital gain. This is called the “bird-in-hand” argument. When the investors are certain about their returns they discount the firm’s earnings at a lower rate and thus placing a higher value for the share and that of the firm. And the vice-versa happens if the returns are not certain.
Formula to testify this: P= E(1-b)/ ke –br
B= Retention ratio (1- payout ratio)
r= rate of return on the investment of the firm.
Modigliani and Miller Approach:
The irrelevance of dividend policy for the valuation of the firm has been most comprehensively presented by MM. They have argued that the market price of the share is affected by the earnings of the firm and is not influenced by the pattern of income distribution. Thus, what is important is the company’s investment decisions which determi9ne the earnings of the firm.
The MM approach to irrelevance of dividend is based on the following assumptions:
- The capital markets ate perfect and the investors behave rationally.
- All the information is freely available to all the investors.
- There is no transaction cost and no big time lag.
- Securities are divisible and can be split into any fraction. No investor can affect the market price.
- There are no taxes and floatation cost.
- The firm has a defined investment policy and the future profits are known with certainty.
They have used the ARBITRAGE process to show that the division of profits between dividends and retained earnings is irrelevant from the point of view of shareholders. They have shown that given the investment opportunities, a firm will raise an equal amount of new share capital externally by selling new shares . the amount of dividends paid to existing share holders will be replaced by new share capital raised externally.
Formula to testify this: P0 = 1/(1+ke) * (D1 + P1)
P0 = present market value of the share
D1 = Expected dividend at the end of the year 1.
P1 = Expected market price of the share at the end of the year 1
The value of the firm can be calculated as:
nP0= 1/ (1 + Ke) * (nD1 + nP1)
n= number of equity shares outstanding
If the firm declares to finance its investment decision by issuing ‘m’ no. of equity shares at a price ‘P1’ , then it will raise funds equal to mP1
Thus, mP1 = I – ( E – n D1 )
I= total investment made
E=Total earnings
nD1= Total dividend paid
Thus, if the firm raises mP1 amount of capital, then its value can be calculated as:
nP0 = 1/(1+Ke )[ (n+m) P1 – I + E]
The process of Arbitrage can be better explained with the help of the following example:
Q. A firm has 1 lac shares outstanding and planning div. of Rs. 5 at the end of the year 1. Present market price of the share is Rs. 100, Ke is 10%. Calculate the P1 if
(i) if div is paid
(ii) if div. is not paid
Q2. Now with the same example calculate the market value of the firm if , the firm’s total earnings were Rs. 10lakhs and it is planning to invest Rs.20 lakhs in the end of year1
(i) If it pays div. of Rs.5
(ii) If it does not pay div of Rs.5
Operating Cycle:The operating cycle of a firm consists of the time required for the completion of the chronological sequence of some or all of the following events:
i) Procurement of raw materials and services.
ii) Conversion of raw materials onto work in progress.
iii) Conversion of work in progress into finished goods
iv) Sale of finished goods(cash or credit)
v) Conversion of receivables into cash.
Operating Cycle Period: The length of time duration of the operating cycle of any firm can be defined as the sum of its Inventory Conversion Period and the Receivable Conversion Period.
ICP- it is the time required for the conversion of raw materials into finished goods for sales. In a mfg. firm the ICP consists of Raw Material Conversion Period, Work in Progress Coversion Period, and Finished Goods Conversion Period.
RCP: it is the time required to convert the credit sales nto cash realization.
ICP + RCP = Total OCP (TOCP)
Net OC = TOCP – Deferral Period (DP)-[ the period for which the credit facilities are availed by the firm.]
Management of cash:
Baumol’s Model:This model is same as the EOQ model of the inventory management. This model attempts to balance the income foregone on cash held by the firm against the transaction cost of converting cash into marketable securities or vice-versa.
Assumption: The firm uses the cash at an already known rate per period and that this rate of use is constant.
Holding Cost: there is always a cost of holding the cash by the firm. This cost may be the opportunity cost in terms of the interest foregone on the investment of this cash.
Transaction Cost: Whenever cash is to be converted into marketable securities, or vice-versa, there is always a cost involved in the form of brokerage, commission etc.
This model is based on the proposition that in order to reduce the holding cost, a firm keeps the least amount cash in hand. However, as the cash level depletes, the firm can acquire cash by selling some of its marketable securities. Each time the firm transacts in this way, it bears transaction cost, so , it will like to transact as occasionally as possible. This could be done by maintaining a higher cash level involving a high holding cost. Thus, the firm has to deal with holding cost as well as the transaction cost. The optimum cash balance is found by controlling the holding cost and transaction cost so as to minimize the total cost of holding cash.
It can be presented as : c √ 2FT/r
C= cash required each time to restore balance to minimum cash
F= Total cash required during the year.
T= cost of each transaction between cash and marketable securities
R= Rate of interest on marketable securities
CAPM- Capital Asset Pricing Model
A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.
The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways: time value of money and risk. The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time. The other half of the formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk measure (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf).
The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the rate on a risk-free security plus a risk premium. If this expected return does not meet or beat the required return, then the investment should not be undertaken. The security market line plots the results of the CAPM for all different risks (betas).
Using the CAPM model and the following assumptions, we can compute the expected return of a stock: if the risk-free rate is 3%, the beta (risk measure) of the stock is 2 and the expected market return over the period is 10%, the stock is expected to return 17% (3%+2(10%-3%)).
Ra = Rf= + βa (Rm – Rf )
Rf= risk free rate
β a = beta of the security
Rm = expected market return